Fudging Statistics

I don't have anything intelligent to say, but the recent unemployment data made me go digging around for more info. Readers of previous posts will know I'm pessimistic on the state of the US economy, so this post may perhaps just be confirmation bias at work.

We know the Obama administration has an incentive to report low unemployment, in light of the trillions spent in stimulus. The people want to see job growth, and the "jobless recovery" has drawn flak from all quarters.

The "good news" is that recent unemployment data shows that the unemployment rate has fallen to 9.7%.

There are two things worthy of note.

1)This unemployment data(also known as U-3) does not measure underemployment, including part-time workers, discouraged workers, etc. The alternative measure for labour underutilization would be U-6.

2)The unemployment data is "seasonally-adjusted". I don't know how it works or how it is calculated or how susceptible it is to fudging by the administration, so I shall refrain from commenting on it.

However, the released data also provides non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates. In non-seasonally-adjusted terms, U-3 has reached a record 10.6%, while U-6 has reached a record 18%.

(Images are from zerohedge)

Is that significant? I don't know, but 18% does sound quite high to me...